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因產(chǎn)量創(chuàng)歷史新高及預(yù)測需求下降 美國天然氣期貨價(jià)格下跌4%
點(diǎn)擊次數(shù)：421 發(fā)表時(shí)間：2023-6-2
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：中國石化新聞網(wǎng)
中國石化新聞網(wǎng)訊 據(jù)天然氣加工新聞網(wǎng)5月30日報(bào)道，當(dāng)?shù)貢r(shí)間5月30日，美國天然氣期貨價(jià)格下跌約4%，由于美國產(chǎn)量創(chuàng)歷史新高，預(yù)計(jì)未來兩周美國天氣將較此前預(yù)期溫和，需求也將低于此前預(yù)期。
作為華盛頓債務(wù)限額協(xié)議的一部分，美國能源公司Equitrans Midstream Corp拖延已久的從西弗吉尼亞州到弗吉尼亞州價(jià)值66億美元Mountain Valley天然氣管道可能會(huì)獲得聯(lián)邦批準(zhǔn)。
受此消息影響，Equitrans股價(jià)大漲約43%至8.70美元，有望創(chuàng)下2022年9月以來的最高收盤價(jià)。
如果Equitrans能夠在2023年底或2024年初完成Mountain Valley項(xiàng)目，它將增加賓夕法尼亞州、西弗吉尼亞州和俄亥俄州阿巴拉契亞盆地的燃料產(chǎn)量。阿巴拉契亞盆地是美國最大的頁巖氣產(chǎn)區(qū)。
阿巴拉契亞地區(qū)的生產(chǎn)商已經(jīng)生產(chǎn)了幾乎所有他們能運(yùn)出該地區(qū)的天然氣，但盆地外緣的管道已近飽和。
根據(jù)美國商品期貨交易委員會(huì)的交易員承諾報(bào)告，盡管上周天然氣價(jià)格下跌了約16%，但投機(jī)者連續(xù)第二周將其在紐約商品交易所和洲際交易所的凈多頭期貨和期權(quán)頭寸提高到2022年6月以來的最高水平。
在現(xiàn)貨市場，美國東部的溫和天氣使新英格蘭和賓夕法尼亞州西部樞紐的次日電價(jià)分別降至2021年3月和2021年12月以來的最低水平。
在美國西部，溫和的天氣和充足的發(fā)電量將南加州邊境次日天然氣價(jià)格推至每百萬英熱單位1.60美元，為2020年7月以來的最低水平。
供求關(guān)系
據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)提供商Refinitiv表示，到目前為止，5月份美國本土48個(gè)州的平均天然氣日產(chǎn)量上升至每天1017億立方英尺，這將超過4月份1014億立方英尺的月度水平。
與此同時(shí)，根據(jù)Refinitiv的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，周二從加拿大流向美國的天然氣量有望從周一的每天72億立方英尺上升至每天76億立方英尺。
本月迄今，加拿大天然氣日出口量已從5月4日85億立方英尺（近6周高點(diǎn)）降至5月17日的64億立方英尺（25個(gè)月低點(diǎn)），由于艾伯塔省的野火導(dǎo)致能源公司石油和天然氣產(chǎn)量降低。
相比之下，自年初以來，加拿大對美國的日均出口量為83億立方英尺，2022年為90億立方英尺。在美國消費(fèi)或出口的天然氣中，約有8%來自加拿大。
據(jù)氣象學(xué)家預(yù)測，到6月14日，美國本土48個(gè)州的天氣將保持接近正常水平，只是上半月將有幾天比平均氣溫?zé)帷?
Refinitiv預(yù)測，隨著季節(jié)性天氣轉(zhuǎn)暖，包括出口在內(nèi)的美國天然氣需求將從本周的每天894億桶上升至下周的每天929億桶。這些預(yù)測低于Refinitiv上周五的預(yù)測。
郝芬 譯自 天然氣加工新聞網(wǎng)
原文如下：
U.S. natgas futures drop 4% on record U.S. output, lower demand forecast
U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 4% on Tuesday on record U.S. output and forecasts for milder U.S. weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
U.S. energy company Equitrans Midstream Corp's long-delayed $6.6 billion Mountain Valley gas pipe from West Virginia to Virginia could win federal approval as part of Washington's debt limit deal.
Shares in Equitrans jumped about 43% to $8.70 on the news, putting the stock on track for its highest close since September 2022.
If Equitrans is able to complete Mountain Valley in late 2023 or early 2024, it would boost the amount of fuel producers could pull out of the ground in the Appalachia basin in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio, the nation's biggest shale gas producing region.
Producers in Appalachia are already producing about all the gas they can ship out of the region since the pipes out of the basin are close to full.
That, however, was still up about 6% from where the June contract expired when it was still the front-month on Friday before the long U.S. Memorial Day weekend. That settle for the June contract was the lowest for the front-month since May 5.
Even though gas prices dropped about 16% last week, speculators boosted their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for a second week in a row to their highest since June 2022, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report.
In the spot market, mild weather in the U.S. East pressured next-day power prices for Tuesday to their lowest since March 2021 in New England and December 2021 at the PJM Western Hub in western Pennsylvania.
In the U.S. West, mild weather and ample hydropower pushed next-day gas prices for Tuesday at the Southern California Border to $1.60 per mmBtu, their lowest since July 2020.
Supply and demand
Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 101.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, which would top April's monthly record of 101.4 bcfd.
The amount of gas flowing from Canada to the U.S., meanwhile, was on track to rise to 7.6 bcfd on Tuesday, up from 7.2 bcfd on Monday, according to Refinitiv.
So far this month, Canadian exports have dropped from a six-week high of 8.5 bcfd on May 4 to a 25-month low of 6.4 bcfd on May 17 as wildfires in Alberta caused energy firms to cut oil and gas production.
That compares with average Canada-to-U.S. exports of 8.3 bcfd since the start of the year and 9.0 bcfd in 2022. About 8% of the gas consumed in, or exported from, the U.S. comes from Canada.
Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain near normal through June 14 with a couple of warmer than normal days on June 1-2 and June 13-14.
Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 89.4 bcfd this week to 92.9 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally warmer. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv forecast on Friday.