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中國(guó)石化新聞網(wǎng)訊 據(jù)天然氣加工新聞網(wǎng)4月19日?qǐng)?bào)道，周三美國(guó)天然氣期貨價(jià)格較前一交易日創(chuàng)下的一個(gè)月高點(diǎn)下跌約5%，由于天氣預(yù)報(bào)證實(shí)，未來兩周天氣基本保持溫和，供暖需求較低。

盡管初步日產(chǎn)量有所下降，而且在得克薩斯州自由港液化天然氣出口工廠于2月結(jié)束為期八個(gè)月的停工后，流入美國(guó)液化天然氣（LNG）出口工廠的天然氣量仍有望在4月份連續(xù)第二個(gè)月創(chuàng)下歷史新高，但價(jià)格還是出現(xiàn)了下跌。

美國(guó)東部時(shí)間上午9時(shí)15分（格林尼治標(biāo)準(zhǔn)時(shí)間13時(shí)15分），紐約商品交易所5月交貨的即月天然氣期貨下跌12美分，跌幅5.1%，至每百萬英熱單位2.246美元。周二，該合約上漲約4%，收于3月16日以來的最高點(diǎn)。

在過去一個(gè)月左右的時(shí)間里，市場(chǎng)一直極不穩(wěn)定，在過去22個(gè)交易日中，即月漲幅或跌幅超過5%的交易日有10個(gè)。

隨著天然氣市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)加劇，周二美國(guó)天然氣基金的流通股攀升至創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的1.813億股，超過了4月10日創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的1.769億股。UNG是一種交易所交易基金（ETF），旨在跟蹤天然氣的每日價(jià)格走勢(shì)。

根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)提供商Refinitiv的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，于2022年6月因火災(zāi)而關(guān)閉的自由港液化天然氣出口工廠，周三有望日投入約22億立方英尺的天然氣。

這與該工廠在4月的大部分時(shí)間里一直在投產(chǎn)的情況相同，高于自由港液化天然氣可轉(zhuǎn)化為液化天然氣供出口的21億立方英尺/日的天然氣。液化天然氣工廠通常會(huì)投入比轉(zhuǎn)化為液化天然氣多一點(diǎn)的天然氣，因?yàn)樗麄兪褂靡恍┤剂蠟樯a(chǎn)液化天然氣的設(shè)備提供動(dòng)力。

到目前為止，美國(guó)所有七家大型液化天然氣出口工廠的日均天然氣流量從3月份創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的132億立方英尺上升到4月份的141億立方英尺。

美國(guó)七大液化天然氣出口工廠可將約138億立方英尺/日的天然氣轉(zhuǎn)化為液化天然氣。

供需情況

據(jù)Refinitiv稱，到目前為止，美國(guó)本土48個(gè)州的日均天然氣產(chǎn)量從3月份的997億立方英尺上升到4月份的1002億立方英尺。相比之下，1月份的月度紀(jì)錄為1004億立方英尺。

然而，按日計(jì)算，由于賓夕法尼亞州和西弗吉尼亞州的產(chǎn)量下降，過去幾天的產(chǎn)量下降約15億立方英尺/日，周三降至993億立方英尺的兩周低點(diǎn)。不過，分析人士指出，初步數(shù)據(jù)通常會(huì)在當(dāng)天晚些時(shí)候進(jìn)行修正。

氣象學(xué)家預(yù)測(cè)，除了4月23日至25日和5月1日至3日的一些比正常天氣冷的日子外，本土48個(gè)州的天氣將在4月基本保持正常。

據(jù)Refinitiv預(yù)測(cè)，隨著季節(jié)性天氣轉(zhuǎn)暖，包括出口在內(nèi)的美國(guó)天然氣需求將從本周的959億立方英尺/日降至下周的955億立方英尺/日，由于預(yù)計(jì)流向液化天然氣工廠的天然氣將減少。這些預(yù)測(cè)與Refinitiv周二的展望相似。

2022—2023年冬季的溫和天氣使公用事業(yè)公司儲(chǔ)存的天然氣比平時(shí)更多。

根據(jù)聯(lián)邦數(shù)據(jù)和分析師的估計(jì)，截至4月7日的一周，天然氣庫存比五年平均水平（2018—2022年）高出約19%，預(yù)計(jì)截至4月14日的一周比往常高出約23%。

郝芬 譯自 天然氣加工新聞網(wǎng)

原文如下：

U.S. natgas futures drop 5% on forecasts for mild weather

U.S. natural gas futures fell about 5% on Wednesday from a one-month high in the prior session on forecasts confirming the weather will remain mostly mild and heating demand low for the next two weeks.

That price decline came despite a drop in preliminary daily output and as the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants remained on track to hit a record high for a second month in a row in April after Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas exited an eight-month outage in February.

Front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 12 cents, or 5.1%, to $2.246 per million British thermal units at 9:15 a.m. EDT (1315 GMT). On Tuesday, the contract gained about 4% to close at its highest since March 16.

The market has been extremely volatile over the past month or so with the front-month gaining or losing more than 5% on 10 of the past 22 trading days.

With gas market volatility rising, shares outstanding in the U.S. Natural Gas Fund climbed to a record 181.3 million on Tuesday, topping the prior record of 176.9 million on April 10. UNG is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to track the daily price movement of gas.

Freeport LNG's export plant, which shut in June 2022 after a fire, was on track to pull in about 2.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas on Wednesday, according to data provider Refinitiv.

That is the same as the plant has been pulling in during most of April, which is above the 2.1 bcfd of gas Freeport LNG can turn into LNG for export. LNG plants usually pull in a little more gas than they can turn into LNG because they use some of the fuel to power equipment used to produce LNG.

Average gas flows to all seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 14.1 bcfd so far in April, up from a record 13.2 bcfd in March.

The seven big U.S. LNG export plants can turn about 13.8 bcfd of gas into LNG.

Supply and demand

Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 100.2 bcfd so far in April, up from 99.7 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 100.4 bcfd in January.

On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop about 1.5 bcfd over the past couple of days to a preliminary two-week low of 99.3 bcfd on Wednesday due mostly to declines in Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Analysts, however, noted preliminary data is often revised later in the day.

Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through April , except for some colder-than-normal days from April 23-25 and May 1-3.

With the weather turning seasonally warmer, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would ease from 95.9 bcfd this week to 95.5 bcfd next week due to an expected decline in gas flows to LNG plants. Those forecasts were similar to Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday.

Mostly mild weather during the winter of 2022-2023 allowed utilities to leave more gas in storage than usual.

Gas stockpiles were about 19% above their five-year average (2018-2022) during the week ended April 7 and were expected to end about 23% above normal during the warmer-than-usual week ended April 14, according to federal data and analysts' estimates.